On Average, Non-State Actors In Sub-Saharan Africa Likely Play A Limited Role, And Will Continue To Play A Limited Role Until 2012
Executive Summary:
While it may seem counter-intuitive, and notwithstanding significant variability from state to state, non-state actors (NSA) on average likely play a limited role in Sub-Saharan Africa, and these roles afford the NSA little to no influence and will likely continue to do so over the next five years. Additionally countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are evenly split between those where Government Sanctioned NSA Role Potentials (as utilized by NSAs like corporations, NGOs, labor unions) dominate and those where Extra-Government NSA Role Potentials (as utilized by NSAs like criminal organizations, terrorist groups) dominate and in both cases the roles played by NSAs on average in these countries are likely still minimal. However, over the next five years, countries where Government Sanctioned Role Potentials dominate are likely to see a moderate increase in the influence of lawful non-state actors, while countries where Extra-Governmental NSA role potentials dominate are likely to see no increase in the influence of unlawful NSAs.
Discussion:
The current conventional wisdom on Sub-Saharan Africa is that the region is hopeless, dangerous, anarchic, and that unlawful NSAs reign supreme. This notion, while it has merit, is not the case. It has merit because certain regions of Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly the central and western regions, contain significant roles for unlawful NSAs. This finding tends to confirm the conventional wisdom. However, approximately half the countries, predominately located in the eastern and southern regions, contain roles conducive to lawful NSAs. This finding contradicts the conventional wisdom. Therefore, when the roles are averaged together, it shows that NSAs in Sub-Saharan Africa likely play a limited role, and that these roles afford NSAs little to no influence. In the next five years, the average roles are unlikely to change. This is why the finding is counterintuitive.
According to the NSA Role Potential Spectrum, Sub-Saharan Africa is divided between Government Sanctioned NSAs and Extra-Government NSAs. Even though these two sub-sections differentiate between two types of predominate NSA roles (lawful and unlawful), both show that the average role is likely minimal. This is due to the overall governmental control in countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, which plays a greater role in the socio-political environment. It is likely that countries where Government Sanctioned NSA role potentials dominate will increase in the influence of lawful NSAs over the next five years, due to such factors as increasing levels of doing business and increasing privatization. However, due to no easing of government control, it is likely that countries where Extra-Government NSA role potentials dominate will remain static over the next five years. Therefore, Government Sanctioned role potential countries in 2012 are likely to see an average of moderate roles for lawful NSAs, and Extra-Government role potential countries in 2012 are likely to see an average of minimal roles for unlawful NSAs.
To explain further, the NSA Role Potential Spectrum model indicates the environment in which NSAs are likely to be influential (see Process and Methodology). Unlawful NSAs are likely to be influential in Extra-Government Role Potentials, and lawful NSAs are likely to be influential in Government Sanctioned Role Potentials (There are exceptions to this model. Certain types of unlawful NSAs, specifically terrorist groups, operate in both Government Sanctioned and Extra-Government Role Potential environments. Lawful NSAs, such as multinational businesses, also operate in both Government Sanctioned and Extra-Government Role Potential environments). A key distinction must be made here. These two different role potentials do not dictate what specific kinds of NSAs are to be found in a country, only the type of environment in which NSAs are likely to function. In essence, unlawful NSAs, such as terrorist groups and criminal organizations, are more likely to operate in an Extra-Government environment, and lawful NSAs, such as lobbyists, NGOs, and trade unions, are more likely to operate in a Government Sanctioned environment.
Analytic Confidence: 8 Source Reliability: 9.5
For questions or comments, please contact the author:
On Average, Non-State Actors In Sub-Saharan Africa Likely Play A Limited Role, And Will Continue To Play A Limited Role Until 2012
Executive Summary:
While it may seem counter-intuitive, and notwithstanding significant variability from state to state, non-state actors (NSA) on average likely play a limited role in Sub-Saharan Africa, and these roles afford the NSA little to no influence and will likely continue to do so over the next five years. Additionally countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are evenly split between those where Government Sanctioned NSA Role Potentials (as utilized by NSAs like corporations, NGOs, labor unions) dominate and those where Extra-Government NSA Role Potentials (as utilized by NSAs like criminal organizations, terrorist groups) dominate and in both cases the roles played by NSAs on average in these countries are likely still minimal. However, over the next five years, countries where Government Sanctioned Role Potentials dominate are likely to see a moderate increase in the influence of lawful non-state actors, while countries where Extra-Governmental NSA role potentials dominate are likely to see no increase in the influence of unlawful NSAs.
Discussion:
The current conventional wisdom on Sub-Saharan Africa is that the region is hopeless, dangerous, anarchic, and that unlawful NSAs reign supreme. This notion, while it has merit, is not the case. It has merit because certain regions of Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly the central and western regions, contain significant roles for unlawful NSAs. This finding tends to confirm the conventional wisdom. However, approximately half the countries, predominately located in the eastern and southern regions, contain roles conducive to lawful NSAs. This finding contradicts the conventional wisdom. Therefore, when the roles are averaged together, it shows that NSAs in Sub-Saharan Africa likely play a limited role, and that these roles afford NSAs little to no influence. In the next five years, the average roles are unlikely to change. This is why the finding is counterintuitive.
According to the NSA Role Potential Spectrum, Sub-Saharan Africa is divided between Government Sanctioned NSAs and Extra-Government NSAs. Even though these two sub-sections differentiate between two types of predominate NSA roles (lawful and unlawful), both show that the average role is likely minimal. This is due to the overall governmental control in countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, which plays a greater role in the socio-political environment. It is likely that countries where Government Sanctioned NSA role potentials dominate will increase in the influence of lawful NSAs over the next five years, due to such factors as increasing levels of doing business and increasing privatization. However, due to no easing of government control, it is likely that countries where Extra-Government NSA role potentials dominate will remain static over the next five years. Therefore, Government Sanctioned role potential countries in 2012 are likely to see an average of moderate roles for lawful NSAs, and Extra-Government role potential countries in 2012 are likely to see an average of minimal roles for unlawful NSAs.
To explain further, the NSA Role Potential Spectrum model indicates the environment in which NSAs are likely to be influential (see Process and Methodology). Unlawful NSAs are likely to be influential in Extra-Government Role Potentials, and lawful NSAs are likely to be influential in Government Sanctioned Role Potentials (There are exceptions to this model. Certain types of unlawful NSAs, specifically terrorist groups, operate in both Government Sanctioned and Extra-Government Role Potential environments. Lawful NSAs, such as multinational businesses, also operate in both Government Sanctioned and Extra-Government Role Potential environments). A key distinction must be made here. These two different role potentials do not dictate what specific kinds of NSAs are to be found in a country, only the type of environment in which NSAs are likely to function. In essence, unlawful NSAs, such as terrorist groups and criminal organizations, are more likely to operate in an Extra-Government environment, and lawful NSAs, such as lobbyists, NGOs, and trade unions, are more likely to operate in a Government Sanctioned environment.
Analytic Confidence: 8
Source Reliability: 9.5
For questions or comments, please contact the author:
Dan McNulty